I’m worried about the CAO in 2025

Yup, it’s that time of year again.

CAO offers are out on the 27th of August 2025. To be honest, this year, I’m worried how the CAO is shaping up.

Everyone understands inflation now. What most people forget is that prices almost never come back down. So your milk goes up. It might pause. It rarely drops.

Looking at the stats, I think the CAO points are the same story.

I’ve done a deep dive into the CAO system in 2019 vs 2024. I’ll show you what I’m concerned about.

Before Covid, the average was about 340 points. Now it is roughly 394. That is about 54 extra points, close to a 15 percent jump. The State boosted grades during Covid by 7.5% into account for the Covid impact on students. Now they are deflating the grades again, slowly but surely.

Those figures don’t stack up. Average grades are up 15%, but the government artificial grade increase was ~7%. Ooooffff, where that extra increase come from?

The papers are more or less the same in 2019 and 2024, barring a few minor tweaks.

So, have the state correctors got softer? Maybe students are collectively working harder?

Possibly both. Either way the graph moved up and it stayed there. It’s a subtle creep, that’s now rearing its head.

There were about 77,700 CAO applicants in 2019. This year it is over 83,000. That’s record territory. And demand is not easing.

That’s going to have another knock on effect – average grades are increasing AND you have close on 10% extra people applying to the CAO.

Well, it is. I’m making a point though – twice as many students now hit 500 points or more compared with pre Covid.

It was ~ 13 percent back then. Now it’s ~ 24 percent. That is astonishing. When I was in school 500 points felt rare. No longer, I’m afraid. The boundaries have shifted.

I think Higher Level Maths plays a key part in that rise. Students recognise the 25 extra bonus points are an easy win if you can just get by. Since 2011, there’s been a 130% increase in the number of students sitting Higher Level Maths. That tells its own tale.

Grinds demand follows the same curve. Parents feel the squeeze, so they buy support. Once things go up, people chase them. Demand for our classes last year doubled. In part because we are delivering results and word spreads. But part too is this culture of grinds, where almost everyone in a class is getting some sort of grind.

Grade deflation is coming. This year, the government will reduce their artificial grade inflation from 8.5% to 5.5%.

But, you’d be very, very concerned that this will only have a negligible impact

We are still miles above 2019 grade averages. At best the graph flattens. But I just don’t see the averages falling, for all the reasons above.

The government can counteract that with more places in Universities, which they are doing. But craeating college courses takes time. It’s a multiple year long process. You cannot pull thousands of extra Medicine or Vet places out of thin air. New courses appear, sure, but capacity at the top moves slowly. When supply lags and demand climbs, inflation sticks.

Your child is in a tougher game. The ladder is higher and it’s more competitive.

There are plenty of options out there, and you just have to look wide.

Here’s what I’d do:

• Ignore the BS around the CAO hype. Focus on what you REALLY want.

• Explore the PLC route. Roughly one in ten college places can go to QQI or PLC graduates. That back door works if you plan it. You can apply whenever.

• Have you explored your options with UCAS or with any EU universities? You will often see courses in Poland or Holland fully funded.

The system is under pressure. There are ways around it. No panic. Just be aware and plan.